🏦 fredapi × Polymarket で Bloomberg Terminal（$2,000/月）を置き換える｜Fed過去データ＋市場の未来予想を1記事で

# Windowsの場合
.venv/Scripts/pip install fredapi
# Mac/Linuxの場合
.venv/bin/pip install fredapi

from fredapi import Fred
fred = Fred(api_key='あなたのキー')
print(type(fred).__name__)  # Fred
print([m for m in dir(fred) if 'get' in m][:5])
# ['get_series', 'get_series_all_releases', 'get_series_as_of_date', ...]

from fredapi import Fred
import os

fred = Fred(api_key=os.environ["FRED_API_KEY"])

# 1. 過去5年の Fed Funds Rate
rate = fred.get_series("FEDFUNDS", observation_start="2021-01-01")
print(rate.tail(10))

# 2. 系列のメタ情報
info = fred.get_series_info("FEDFUNDS")
print(info["title"], "/", info["units"], "/", info["frequency"])

curl -sS "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?closed=false&limit=20&tag_id=2&order=volume24hr&ascending=false"

# 06_fred_polymarket_combo.py
from fredapi import Fred
import os, requests

fred = Fred(api_key=os.environ["FRED_API_KEY"])

# 1. FREDから過去5年のFed Funds Rate
rate = fred.get_series("FEDFUNDS", observation_start="2021-01-01")
print(f"過去データ: {len(rate)}ポイント")
print(f"  最新: {rate.index[-1].date()} = {rate.iloc[-1]:.2f}%")
print(f"  1年前: {rate.iloc[-13]:.2f}%")
print(f"  最高: {rate.max():.2f}%  最低: {rate.min():.2f}%")

# 2. Polymarket 次回FOMC関連市場を取得
print("\n=== Polymarket: 次回FOMC予想 ===")
r = requests.get(
    "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets",
    params={"closed": "false", "limit": 100, "order": "volume24hr", "ascending": "false"},
    timeout=15,
)
markets = r.json()
fed_markets = [
    m for m in markets
    if any(k in (m.get("question", "") or "").lower()
           for k in ["fed", "fomc", "rate"])
]

for m in fed_markets[:5]:
    q = m["question"][:60]
    vol = m.get("volume24hr", 0)
    price = m.get("lastTradePrice")
    print(f"  {price:.3f} | ${vol:>12,.0f} | {q}")

# 3. シンプルな結論
if fed_markets:
    no_change = next(
        (m for m in fed_markets if "no change" in m["question"].lower()), None
    )
    if no_change:
        p = no_change.get("lastTradePrice", 0)
        current_rate = rate.iloc[-1]
        print(f"\n市場の予想：次回Fed会合は{p*100:.1f}%の確率で据え置き")
        print(f"→ つまり金利は約{current_rate:.2f}%で推移継続と見られている")

過去データ: 51ポイント
  最新: 2026-03-01 = 4.33%
  1年前: 4.33%
  最高: 5.33%  最低: 0.05%

=== Polymarket: 次回FOMC予想 ===
  0.979 | $    1,095,049 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Apr
  0.011 | $    1,336,785 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the
  0.007 | $    1,107,488 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the
  0.004 | $    3,472,741 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the

市場の予想：次回Fed会合は97.9%の確率で据え置き
→ つまり金利は約4.33%で推移継続と見られている

> 今日時点で、Polymarketの市場確率によれば **2026年4月のFOMCは97.9%の確率で金利据え置き**と予想されています。
> つまりドル円の方向性に金利要因の新情報は入ってこない前提で分析します。